??IMF海湾国家本年盈利将缩水 世界钱银基金组织(IMF)标明，因为国内出资加大且石油价格回落，估计本年海湾区域石油出口国的常常账户盈利将降低。 Gulf oil exporters’ current account surpluses are expected to fall this year on rising domestic invest
??IMF海湾国家本年盈利将缩水
世界钱银基金组织(IMF)标明，因为国内出资加大且石油价格回落，估计本年海湾区域石油出口国的常常账户盈利将降低。
Gulf oil exporters’ current account surpluses are expected to fall this year on rising domestic investment and softer oil prices, said the International Monetary Fund said.
可是，这些国家在全球规模内收购世界性公司和房地产的出资热心如同将持续下去。
But the global spending spree undertaken by Gulf states, snapping up international companies and real estate nevertheless looks set to continue.
IMF在其半年一度的中东和中亚区域经济展望中指出，石油出口国的算计常常账户盈利本年将减缩至1800亿美元，其占国内出产总值(GDP)的比重将从上一年的20%降至13%。IMF和其他经济学家使用常常账户盈利来猜测出资者收购外国资产的放置资金量。
The fund’s half-yearly regional economic outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia region said oil-exporting countries’ combined current account, used by the IMF and other economists to gauge the spare cash investors have to plough into foreign assets, will narrow to 13 per cent of gross domestic product, or $180bn, from 20 per cent of GDP last year.
IMF猜测，沙特阿拉伯本年的常常账户盈利将降低28%，从上一年的960亿美元降至约700亿美元。
Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus will decline 28 per cent to about $70bn (€52bn, ￡35bn) from $96bn last year, the IMF forecast.
可是，尽管中东和中亚区域的常常账户盈利估计将回落，但该区域的常常账户累计盈利仍处于高位。自2003年以来，该区域的累计盈利已添加8100亿美元，其间海湾阿拉伯国家所占比例为四分之三。
But despite the expected dip in surpluses this year, the cumulative current account surplus for the Middle East and Central Asia region remains high. Since 2003, it has grown to $810bn, with Gulf Arab states accounting for three-quarters of that amount.
IMF中东暨中亚部分主任莫辛汗(Mohsin Khan)标明，如今这些资金流回海外的机缘现已老到。
These funds are ripe for recycling overseas, says Mohsin Khan, IMF Middle East and Central Asia department director.
"自从(上一年)该区域股市崩盘以来，出资者已将目光转向房地产和外国资产，"莫辛汗在接收一次采访时标明，"他们还着眼于本区域的资产，首要方针为埃及、约旦和北非。"
"Since the regional stock market crash [last year], investors have looked to real estate and foreign assets," said Mr Khan in an interview. "They are also looking at assets around the region, going in a major way into Egypt, along with Jordan and North Africa."
IMF标明，该区域全体前景将持续亮堂。
The general outlook continued to be bright, the IMF said.
经济变革、有利的全球环境和油价高企令该区域上一年的实践GDP增幅抵达6.5%，一起使该区域人均收入较2002年高出75%。此轮石油美元热潮始于2002年。
A combination of economic reforms, a favourable global environment and high oil prices produced real GDP growth across the region of 6.5 per cent last year, bringing up average per capita incomes 75 per cent higher than 2002, the first year of this petrodollar boom.
因为石油将持续推进经济增加，估计中东和中亚区域本年的经济增速将与上一年相等。
Economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to remain at the same level this year as the oil-driven surge continues.
IMF标明，埃及等新式商场国家将持续坚持微弱增加气势。假定国内平安得到改进，在更为健旺的准则和更为平稳的方针推进下，伊拉克、阿富汗和苏丹等迸发过国内冲突的国家应能完成两位数增加。
Emerging markets such as Egypt would continue to grow strongly, the IMF said. Post-conflict states such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan should jump into double-digit growth on stronger institutions and steadier policies, providing security improved.
